Thursday, April 9, 2020

Inflation or Deflation?

What will the post-pandemic US economy look like? GDP growth will certainly take a hit, unemployment will be high, but what about that third key macroeconomic indicator-- inflation?  As we know, the government and central bank are pumping money into the economy.  Under normal circumstances, this would push up money supply (M), boost demand and put upward pressure on prices. And no doubt,  some of  this "stimulation" would be welcome.  But, remember the "velocity of money" (v) was held constant in the quantity theory of money? Turns out that will likely fall sharply as well.  The end result is not necessarily inflation but disinflation, possibly....(shudder)....deflation! This article from Bloomberg discusses the threat of disinflation around the world.
Test your understanding: "Macoronamics" Quiz #3

Extra: Some pictures on inflation from Seeking Alpha